Modules / Module 09

The Science of Superforecasting

What separates top 1% traders from the rest

Study the Good Judgment Project, base rates, Bayesian updating, calibration, and the habits that help forecasters consistently beat the crowd.

Chapters

  1. Who Are Superforecasters? The Good Judgment Project
  2. Decomposing Problems into Base Rates and Specifics
  3. The Outside View vs. The Inside View
  4. Updating Probabilities: Bayesian Thinking in Practice
  5. The Dragonfly Eye: Combining Multiple Perspectives
  6. Calibration Training: How Accurate Are Your Probabilities?
  7. Common Superforecaster Habits and Workflows
  8. Why Experts Fail: The Hedgehog vs. The Fox
  9. Can Superforecasting Be Learned? Evidence and Methods