Modules / Module 01

Foundations of Prediction Markets

What they are, why they work, and where they came from

Learn what prediction markets are, how prices reflect probabilities, why crowds often beat experts, and how these markets are used—and regulated—around the world.

Chapters

  1. What Is a Prediction Market? Definition & Core Concepts
  2. Why "Price = Probability" – The Information Aggregation Thesis
  3. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why Groups Are Smarter Than Experts
  4. A Brief History: From Iowa Electronic Markets to Polymarket
  5. Prediction Markets vs. Opinion Polls vs. Expert Panels
  6. Real-World Applications: Elections, Sports, Finance, and Crypto
  7. Legal & Regulatory Landscape (US, EU, Asia)
  8. Key Criticisms and Limitations