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US Prediction Market Trading for 2026 World Cup Projected to Top $2.5 Billion
• A new forecast projects US trading volume on prediction markets for the 2026 FIFA World Cup will surpass $2.5 billion.
• The federally regulated exchange Kalshi is expected to see a record $1.47 billion in volume, driven primarily by individual match wagering.
• This level of activity would place the soccer tournament’s prediction market trading on par with the US college basketball tournament March Madness.
• The expansion to 48 teams and 104 matches is a key factor driving the unprecedented projected trading volumes.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is poised to trigger an unprecedented wave of activity on US prediction markets, with a new report forecasting total trading volume will exceed $2.5 billion. This projection, detailed in a Monday release from research firm DeFi Rate, indicates the global soccer tournament will generate financial engagement rivaling the American collegiate basketball phenomenon of March Madness. The data underscores a significant shift in the US sports trading landscape, where soccer has traditionally been considered a secondary market.
The forecast centers on activity on the federally regulated prediction exchange Kalshi, which is projected to see a base case trading volume of $1.47 billion for the tournament. According to DeFi Rate's analysis of nearly 9.8 million historical trades, individual match outcome contracts will be the primary driver, accounting for approximately 80%—or $1.19 billion—of Kalshi's base projection. The research indicates 90% of match contract trading historically occurs on the day of the game, with most action materializing late. The market for the outright tournament champion is also significant, expected to draw $253 million, surpassing the $169 million traded for the recent college basketball national champion on the same platform.
"The World Cup trading at March Madness levels says that’s not necessarily true," said Cheryle Shepstone, Director of Content at DeFi Rate, referring to soccer's previous secondary status in the US. "The key driver will be the individual matchups." The expanded 48-team, 104-match format of the 2026 event, to be hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, provides a substantial catalyst for these volumes. Ultimate trading totals will be dictated by host nation performance and specific fixture line-ups.
This surge in prediction market activity coincides with projections for record-breaking handle at traditional US sportsbooks. Firms like Eilers & Krejcik Gaming project the online sports betting handle for the tournament could reach $2.82 billion, a potential increase of up to 182% from the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. While operators like DraftKings and FanDuel continue to dominate the traditional sports wagering sector, the growth of prediction markets—where platforms offer derivatives contracts similar to financial instruments—highlights a diversifying ecosystem. The sector has expanded rapidly globally, with some analyst estimates suggesting total industry volumes could surpass $325 billion by year's end, despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny in several US states.