Study Flags Nassau and Miami-Dade as Nation's Most Fiscally Stressed Counties

A sweeping new analysis of America’s largest county governments reveals pronounced fiscal stress in several major jurisdictions, with Nassau County, New York, and Miami-Dade County, Florida, emerging as the most financially distressed. The study, conducted by the Reason Foundation, applied eight standardized metrics for long-term solvency and short-term liquidity to the nation’s 100 most populous counties, assigning a “red flag” for each concerning trend. Nassau and Miami-Dade each triggered five flags, the highest count in the nation. The report underscores the immense scale of county governance, noting these entities collectively shouldered approximately $757 billion in total liabilities at the end of fiscal year 2023. Counties provide foundational services, from law enforcement and public health to managing airports and transit systems, while confronting high fixed costs, growing pension liabilities, and capital-intensive infrastructure needs. “A single red flag does not necessarily signal an immediate fiscal crisis,” the analysis states, “but each one points to structural weaknesses that deserve urgent attention.” Nassau County, a wealthy suburb of New York City, faces severe debt pressures. Its $14.2 billion in debt was more than double its $7.0 billion in assets, resulting in a deeply negative unrestricted net position of -$9.9 billion. Liabilities per capita stood at $10,175, and its debt was 3.65 times greater than its annual revenue. Miami-Dade, a consolidated city-county, had the highest liabilities per capita among top counties at $11,190, with total debt 2.44 times its annual revenue and an unrestricted net position of -$4.8 billion. Both counties also showed short-term liquidity concerns. Other counties exhibiting significant stress include Westchester County, New York; Prince George’s County, Maryland; Jefferson County, Alabama; Denton County, Texas; and Baltimore County, Maryland, each with four red flags. Los Angeles County, the nation’s most populous, holds the largest total liabilities at $62.4 billion and is functionally insolvent long-term, with liabilities exceeding assets by $12.0 billion and an unrestricted net position of -$35.4 billion. Cook County, Illinois, posted the highest debt ratio among the group at 269%. The analysis also highlights jurisdictions managing fiscal pressures effectively. Twenty-six counties displayed zero red flags, and another 33 triggered only one. Maricopa County, Arizona—the fourth most populous—limited liabilities per capita to $763, maintained assets double its liabilities, and holds a positive net position. Similarly, San Diego and Orange Counties in California demonstrate that fiscal prudence is achievable even in high-cost regions, with strong asset-to-liability ratios and modest per-capita debt. The report concludes that financial outcomes are not inevitable consequences of size or location but reflect differing management approaches. It offers the fiscally healthy counties as replicable models for others seeking to build resilience against ongoing economic and demographic pressures.